Rebalancing Act – On China’s Economy

DANIEL ROARTY

What a difference five years make. Back in 2008, as Beijing welcomed the world to its Olympic games, it seemed as if it was the next great, unstoppable superpower. Analysts were, with full confidence, running straight extrapolations of its 8-10% yearly growth rates decades into the future. From that time until now, China has approximately replicated the entire US commercial banking system, with overall credit jumping from $9 trillion to $23 trillion and creating what some analysts have called a credit bubble “unprecedented in modern world history.” China’s surging GDP rates in the past decades have mainly been fueled by investment-heavy growth. This model, however, is quickly losing its power, and China’s falling GDP growth rates raise an interesting debate on the roles of investment and consumption in China’s development.

On the 68th Anniversary of the Bombing of Hiroshima

DANIEL ROARTY

Today, August 6^th, 2013, marks the 68^th anniversary of the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima. This date is far more than an anniversary of a single event – it is both an annual reminder of the challenges and divergent priorities facing Japan, as well as a stark reminder of the dark side of increasing human potential.

50,000 people attended the ceremony in Hiroshima’s Peace Park, among them being ambassadors from nuclear powers the United States, Britain, and Pakistan.  Japanese Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe pledged that, as the world’s sole country to have suffered through nuclear attacks, Japan has a responsibility to work towards a world without nuclear weapons. This could be slightly welcome news for many who feared that Abe’s recent electoral victory would unleash more hawkish policies and postures.

Japanese Election – Despite LDP Victory, Significant Hurdles Remain for Abe’s Agenda

DANIEL ROARTY

On Sunday, July 22^nd, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) won a widely expected victory in upper house elections, securing LDP-coalition control over both houses and placing Japan’s near-term political agenda into Abe’s hands. However, what Abe intends to do or is capable of doing with this opportunity is a source of debate. Despite the LDP’s “landslide” victory, the challenges to Abe’s agenda remain formidable, and contain significant economic, diplomatic, and political hurdles.

First, the PM’s signature “Abenomics” policy of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory reform is expected to go ahead. With G8 approval for such reforms and public optimism for the recovering economy, the success of policies enacted thus far have been a key component in Abe’s victory. The crucial element to watch now is the extent of announced regulatory reforms. Reforms announced before the election were seen by analysts as not going far enough and tepid compared to earlier proposals. Additionally, there are key stakeholders to these reforms who represent vested interests that could undermine its full potential. These stakeholders are not only influential business leaders, but members of the recently-elected upper house. Therefore, the push for deeper reforms is expected to be a far more difficult and uncertain process than the previous policies of fiscal and monetary stimulus.